Duck Dive: Ohio State Football 2024 Preview (2024)

Special thanks to Eric Boggs of The OHIO Podcast for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss Ohio State’s roster. LISTEN HERE

The Buckeyes are one of the elite talent programs in college football, ranking in the top 3 of the 24/7 Sports Team Talent Composite for every year that it’s existed but one (2016, when they were 5^th). Relative to the rest of the Big Ten conference, their roster average is in a tier by itself:

In a sense, predicting how Ohio State will replace any given departure is straightforward – it’ll be with yet another highly recruited bluechip talent, since essentially that’s the only type of player who’s on the team. However, for what appear to be cultural reasons that have developed over the last several years, the Buckeyes minimize player rotations at almost all positions during both meaningful play and the extensive garbage time during their many blowouts of inferior opponents. That can make dealing with injuries a challenge, as well as presenting obstacles for film reviewers seeking to make inferences about where backups stand in the pecking order. As we commiserated with Eric about on the podcast, covering a team at the top of the talent spectrum means any surprise is an unpleasant one – such a team can’t possibly overperform, at best they perform nominally – and quite a few mysteries going into 2024 means there are some possibilities for surprises.

Since Urban Meyer took over in 2012 and ushered in the post-Tressel era in Ohio State football, the Buckeyes have only had two kinds of offensive rankings in F+ advanced statistics: top-5 finishes for eight seasons, and the low 20s for the remaining three.

Two of the latter category happened while Meyer was working through a peculiar knot of a quarterback situation in 2015 and 2016 between JT Barrett, Cardale Jones, and Joe Burrow. But it had resolved by 2017 with Barrett taking a big step forward as a passer and Dwayne Haskins emerging as a backup then taking over for an undisputed lock on the position in 2018, while Burrow found a different type of offense to run successfully at LSU. Coach Day kept the offense ticking at a top-5 level for his first four seasons starting in 2019, not coincidentally starting a pair of NFL 1^st round draft picks at quarterback for two years apiece in Justin Fields and CJ Stroud without controversy.

Last year was Day’s first season outside of the top 5 in offensive performance, and given the historical pattern, locating the issue at subpar quarterback play has proved irresistible to most commenters. Having reviewed all of Ohio State’s film for the past five years (the last three as I have for all Big Ten teams as part of this series, and the two prior to prepare for a home-and-home between OSU and Oregon in 2020 and 2021 had it not been for covid), I don’t think the matter is nearly so pat.

In my opinion, longstanding stressors in Day’s system of playcalling as well as the tightness with which each skill position unit is run rotationally had been building for a while. When several new offensive line starters had very poor debuts, a quarterback who wasn’t completely elite but would have been more than serviceable without those stressors became overloaded to the point of breaking.

On the podcast, Eric and I had a robust discussion about how effective 2023 starter Kyle McCord was and at what point it became clear he needed to go. I maintain that under better circ*mstances, and even the circ*mstances he faced, McCord’s NCAA passer rating of 161.6 – more than a full standard deviation above median, well past the usual threshold for deep postseason play, second highest in the league last year, and sixth highest of returning Power conference QBs in 2024 – meant that he wasn’t the chief bottleneck in the offense, even though his grades with both a clean pocket and especially at improvisation during pocket breakdowns were lower than his four predecessors in Columbus. Eric pointed out that McCord had lost the huddle and demonstrated no leadership when times had gotten tough, so even if he were adequate as a passer he couldn’t be given the reins again.

At any rate, McCord has gone, transferring to Syracuse by the end of the regular season, and Ohio State is left to make a new quarterback selection among quite a variety of talents but with many of the same surrounding circ*mstances obtaining, though a few key changes.

Eric and I also spent a while sorting through how the offensive playcalling worked under coach Day how it will work with this season’s hiring of OC Kelly, previously the head coach at UCLA and Oregon. Kelly is also to be the OSU QB coach (replacing Corey Dennis, who according to Eric “did nothing”), and in my observations of Kelly for the better part of 20 years, his approach to passing system design and attendant QB selection is quite eccentric … as such, whether Day or Kelly writes the passing playbook has a dispositive effect on which QB wins the job.

Day and Kevin Wilson had been co-OCs under Meyer starting in 2017, and when Day was promoted to head coach, Eric explained that Day kept playcalling duties from the sideline but had Wilson acting as OC in the booth with the “eyes in the sky” whom he trusted to plan things out a couple plays in advance. That arrangement lasted through 2022, after which Wilson left to become Tulsa’s head coach. In 2023, WR coach Hartline was promoted to OC, though Eric said this was in name only and effectively Day had taken on all major offensive decision-making roles himself, with an interesting story about being overtasked shared by way of Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. I think that’s part of the puzzle regarding the downtick in performance in 2023, but it also sheds light on Day’s plan to design and control the offense going forward, or at least the passing elements of it as a former quarterback himself.

Eric told us that the control Day plans to cede to Kelly – his former coach at New Hampshire and something of a mentor – is in designing the run game, while Day is still in charge of pass game design and marrying the two, and then Kelly is to call plays from the booth within the merged system with Day having a headset veto. This strikes me as an unusual arrangement fraught with some curious baggage and needlessly complicated. But it’s also my opinion that if one is going to hire Kelly one should only do so for his innovative and actually effective run concepts about which he’s clearly passionate, and not allow Kelly’s gimmicky and easily solved pass structures that demand a hyper-athletic QB to bail him out anywhere near the live playbook. Since this appears to be the case, maybe this can work.

The Buckeyes have five scholarship quarterbacks to choose from. The returners from last year are 2022 high 4-star #33 QB D. Brown and 2023 mid 4-star #3 QB Kienholz (who wore jersey #12 as a freshman). Brown appeared on some gadget plays throughout the year and then started the bowl game after McCord had left, and Kienholz finished the bowl after Brown appeared to take an injury; neither played particularly well but Mizzou was tearing apart Ohio State’s line and I’m not sure anyone would have. In the 2024 class, they’ve signed 5-star #10 QB Sayin (who originally went with Alabama) and high 4-star #12 QB Noland.

The final addition is Kansas State transfer #18 QB Howard, a mid 3-star from the 2020 cycle. Howard took over as a true freshman in week 3 when starter Skylar Thompson was hurt against Texas Tech and finished the year. Thompson was hurt again in week 2 of 2021 against Southern Illinois and Howard filled in again for the next couple games, but Thompson recovered to finish from week 5 onwards and Howard resumed backup duties. In 2022, K-State brought in Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez who became the starter but got hurt in week 8 against TCU so Howard filled in yet again, followed by splitting time in weeks 10 and 11, and then Martinez took a second, season-ending injury so Howard finished out the year. Finally, in 2023 Howard won the Wildcats’ starting job for the full year, although he had to fight off a challenge from true freshman Avery Johnson whom the staff would put in on about 20% of snaps to try and spark the offense.

In the Spring game, Howard was taking snaps with the first team offense and appeared to be in pole position, while Brown was also with the ones but came in later, Kienholz with the twos, and the true freshmen getting later reps. Eric and I agreed on the interpretation that Howard is in the lead for the job with Brown as the primary backup, and to the extent there’s a battle it’s between the three younger QBs for the third spot. Eric thinks that Howard’s leadership, veteran status, and the fact that he’s had to compete for a job every single year he’s been in college will win out and provide a real contrast to McCord. He also mentioned some rumors that Sayin may be in the hunt for a Fall surprise to win the job, which I might credit if Kelly has more say in the decision – Sayin’s superior athleticism fits Kelly’s needs much better than Howard’s tape of only modest success getting out of broken pockets.

Predicting a dramatic improvement in passing performance with Howard is difficult to do, and even more so if it winds up being a different QB on whom we have practically no film. Ohio State is one of only two Power conference teams to have a QB with a passer rating over one full standard deviation above the FBS median transfer out, and the only team likely to replace such a QB with a transfer who rated below the median as Howard did at 140.1:

Having watched much of Howard’s tape for other projects, I’m not sure what shackles existed in the K-State offense that he’ll be able to cast off upon arriving at Ohio State. He struck me as comfortable with his receiving targets and the structure of the offense in Manhattan, and he had a good running game to take pressure off as well as a sound coaching staff and offensive line protection at least as good as that in Columbus. Certainly the overall talent will be better with the Buckeyes, but college football was filled with quarterbacks surrounded with comparable talent and circ*mstances (or worse) as Howard enjoyed in 2023 who recorded higher passer ratings, as the above chart illustrates. I think the most likely explanation is that his number represents his intrinsic ceiling and it’s unlikely to improve substantially even with greater skill talent surrounding him in 2024, so questions of leadership aside, to me the odds favor a net downgrade in passing production compared to McCord.

Among the five backs getting carries in 2023, the three in the primary rotation got the ball on about a 4:2:1 basis – those were #32 RB Henderson, Chip Trayanum, and Miyan Williams, respectively. Dallan Hayden got only a handful of meaningful carries, and Evan Pryor only got the ball during garbage time. Henderson is the only scholarship returner in the room in 2024 as Trayanum, Hayden, and Pryor have transferred out, and Williams tried unsuccessfully for the NFL after a college career limited by injury.

Henderson is a very effective back, and on a per-play basis remained over 50% success even as the line opened far fewer holes for him in 2023 compared to previous years, particularly his phenomenal 2021 season. He graded out as the best pass-protection back in the league last year on my tally sheet, something that was especially valuable with this line and I think helped explain the reluctance to rotate him out. Michigan hired away Ohio State’s longtime coach here, Tony Alford, and Day replaced him with RB coach Locklyn from Oregon, whom I’ve written about as an effective manager of running back units.

The three additions to the unit are Ole Miss transfer #1 RB Judkins, and 2024 recruits #20 RB Peoples, a mid 4-star, and #24 RB Williams-Dixon, a mid 3-star. Judkins was a back-to-back thousand-yard rusher for the Rebels, though while I watched his tape incidentally in 2022 and was very impressed with his success rates from charting, his per-play numbers fell substantially in 2023 – by 1.4 YPC to a fairly average 4.3, representing 400 fewer yards on the same number of carries as his freshman year – though I don’t know why as I didn’t watch that film. Eric thought he might have just been overworked after two straight years of 270+ carries and looking for a split-back system, which I think he’ll get at Ohio State. I agree with Eric that the balance of Judkins’ carries will favor shorter yardage while Henderson is more of the breakaway back.

Assuming they both stay healthy this is a fantastic one-two punch of a unit. The only concern is depth, as the only backups are both untested true freshmen of whom just one is a bluechip. It’s an odd flip to have gone from an arguably overstuffed room to an understaffed one. I’ve been expecting for the entire offseason to see the Buckeyes take another insurance back from the portal, but it hasn’t happened yet and may not at all.

Ohio State loses their primary tight end Cade Stover, who was drafted in the 4^th round by the Texans. They also lose Sam Hart and Joe Royer, who transferred out without really seeing the field. Stover was one of the most valuable pass-catching tight ends in the country, with over 14 yards per reception – fifth place among TEs with 35+ catches. On a per-target basis, Stover was the most effective pass catcher of the eleven to whom McCord distributed the ball during meaningful play, and one of only three who were above average in success rate and yards per target, per this chart with 2024 returning players in solid colored bars:

The Buckeyes return 2020 high 4-star #88 TE G. Scott, who was the second tight end in for 12-personnel packages and mostly used as a blocker though got about a third the targets Stover did, plus 2023 mid 4-star #15 TE Thurman who played a little bit as a true freshman. Also with the team are walk-on #49 TE Gurd, mostly used in a sort of fullback role, and 2022 low 4-star #85 TE Christian, who practiced but was ineligible in 2023 after testing positive for a banned substance.

The additions are #89 TE Kacmarek, a senior with a good deal of experience who transferred from the Ohio Bobcats and was unrated out of high school but considered a .8900 transfer value by the scouting services, plus a couple of low 4-star true freshmen who enroll in the Fall and Eric expects to redshirt.

In the Spring game, Scott was practicing with the ones, Thurman was the second TE in, Gurd was playing his typical situational role, while Christian and Kacmarek came in pretty late. I was surprised by that order, since as Eric and I discussed on the podcast, Scott has graded out quite poorly in all aspects – blocking, route-running, per-play effectiveness as a receiver – and when watching his film it looks like fundamental problems with assignment football such as knowing where he’s supposed to be and getting the proper leverage on the play.

Eric thinks Scott is going to debut as the starter out of respect for his team contributions and may even be awarded the “Block O” jersey #0 for meritorious seniors (Ohio State has many such embellishments to their uniforms), but that Thurman might quickly displace him if Scott hasn’t taken big strides this offseason. He also doesn’t think Kacmarek is going to figure highly into the rotation despite the experience and production void he might fill in this unit, because of the lower level of play he’s been at before. That would match the Spring game rotation so I think he’s right, though one wonders why Ohio State took him at all in that case instead of deploying its top-dollar NIL resources on someone to more certainly replicate Stover’s numbers.

There seemed to be a significant effort to simplify the passing route structure last year compared to the two years prior, with the diversity of pre-snap formations I charted coming down by about 40% per game and around a quarter of all pass patterns I had observed earlier simply not re-appearing in 2023. The primary way that simplification showed up was in a narrowing of receiver roles – only one receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr, was consistently lined up out wide and sent into the pattern on virtually every snap, while two other receivers, #2 WR Egbuka and Julian Fleming, were essentially repurposed from flexible slot or outside receivers as they had been in the past into tight ends or H-backs aligned tight to the formation and blocking on about 70% of their snaps. Just two other receivers saw meaningful play, and those were highly situational – Xavier Johnson who on a 2:1 basis was used as an outside runner for endarounds and sweeps, and then-true freshman #17 WR Tate who was used in spread formations to flood the pattern.

Egbuka and Fleming’s total and per-play productivity dropped significantly in 2023. Eric chalked this up to McCord being locked onto Harrison, his former high school teammate. I think there’s something to that theory, since I have a number of throws on my tally sheet that I think McCord forced to Harrison when he should have moved elsewhere in the progression, but I think it has limited explanatory power as Harrison’s target frequency, production, and per-play effectiveness didn’t really change in 2023 (and they led the WR corps, appropriately). What changed is that throws to Egbuka and Fleming were far less effective in 2023 compared to 2022, on both a success rate given the down & distance and a YPT basis – they were used for different types of passes, and those passes got less done for the Buckeyes.

Harrison was drafted in the 1^st round by the Cardinals, Johnson signed a UDFA with the Bills, Fleming transferred to Penn State, and 2022 mid 4-star Kyion Grayes transferred to Cal after playing with the twos in the Spring game (he had missed almost all of the 2023 season with an injury).

Egbuka and Tate return, and were playing in the slot and outside respectively with the ones, where Eric and I both expect they’ll start in 2024. Tate was fairly ineffective as a true freshman but as we noted on the podcast, it’s common to see big steps forward in a receiver’s sophom*ore year, and Egbuka has proven he can be a top receiver in this offense if other factors aren’t getting in the way. (If it’s the case that Kelly has more control of the passing offense than postulated, then I would also think that Egbuka is in for an even bigger year, as Kelly’s passing systems funnel just about everything to the inside and that’s where it looks like he’d be lining up.)

The wideouts return two 2023 recruits who got very little playing time as true freshmen: 5-star #11 WR Inniss and low 4-star #13 WR Rodgers. Inniss sat out the Spring game so I still haven’t really seen him but Eric thinks he’s due for a breakout season – he’s a shorter receiver and I’d imagine he’d be a dedicated slot man, perhaps as a backup or enabling the 6’1” Egbuka more formational flexibility. Rodgers got into the portal this offseason but decided to return to Ohio State; I saw him with the twos in the Spring game and Eric figures him for the two-deep in the Fall, I think probably on the outside.

The last two returners are mid 4-stars, 2021’s #9 WR Ballard and 2022’s #14 WR Antwi. Neither have really any meaningful play during their time on campus. Ballard was playing on the outside with the ones in the Spring game but Eric was quite critical of his route running and thinks he’s already been passed up. Antwi was fighting it out with a trio of walk-ons with the third unit for playing time. Eric and I both expressed surprise that these two haven’t transferred out.

The two additions are true freshmen 5-stars, Mylan Graham who arrives in the Fall and #4 WR J. Smith who was practicing on the outside with the twos in Spring. Eric said it’s the worst kept secret in Columbus that Smith will get the start in the Fall, though like me he’s aware of the historical data indicating even extremely talented true freshmen almost always take a year before they’re as productive as promised and has been cautioning Buckeye fans to tap the brakes a bit.

At a 0.9666 average in the 24/7 composite, this room is the most talented on paper of an extraordinarily talented team. It’s rather light on proven effectiveness now that Fleming, Harrison, and Johnson have left – only Egbuka and Tate have gotten meaningful targets and both had less than ideal seasons last year, but I know what Egbuka can do and Tate should get the benefit of the doubt.

There are two concerns here. First is playable depth – the room has an unusually few number of bodies in it, with question marks or notes of concern next to a majority, and as such it wouldn’t take more than one or two injuries or busts to seriously curtail their flexibility and perhaps production. Second, while I think the conditions that limited receivers not named Harrison last year didn’t have anything to do with the receivers themselves and therefore there’s nothing intrinsic to this unit holding them back, those conditions aren’t in their control either – if the passer quality, o-line protection, play design, and other aspects of the passing offense that are upstream of them don’t get back to their top-5 ways, then they could be stuck in the same situation.

At the end of the 2021 season, Ohio State fired their longtime offensive line coach, Greg Studrawa. I found this to be shocking given how well his lines had performed, though Eric told us on the podcast that Studrawa had missed substantial time that year with back surgery and couldn’t recruit. In his remarkable tenure, Studrawa had both recruited and developed seven All-Americans — Wyatt Davis, Paris Johnson, Dawand Jones, Michael Jordan, Thayer Munford, Josh Myers, and Nicholas Petit-Frere – plus several more draft picks, while coaching two Rimington trophy winners recruited by previous OL coach Ed Warriner … and this is leaving out Studrawa’s seven-year career at LSU in which the Tigers won two SEC titles and a national championship.

I was even more deeply shocked that the Buckeyes replaced Studrawa with OL coach Frye from UCLA, who under head coach Kelly for four years had recruited abominably, relied excessively on the transfer portal, and whose linemen consistently failed to master basics of the snap count and a proper vertical set in pass protection.

After the 2022 season, the starting tackles Johnson and Jones as well as center Luke Wypler were drafted (in the 1^st round by the Cardinals, 4^th and 6^th by the Browns, respectively). I was a little surprised that they selected high 3-star #70 RT Fryar, a 2020 recruit I had pegged as a career depth piece, until Eric told us on the podcast that two other linemen eventually medically retired (though he gave us happy news about their recoveries) and the last one of the Studrawa 2021 class guys hadn’t panned out. I was not surprised that they went with mid 4-star #75 C Hinzman, since Frye had to fight hard to keep him as a recruit after Studrawa was fired, nor that they went to the portal to find low 4-star #71 LT Simmons from San Diego State given Frye’s history.

Eric was well ahead of me in identifying the new offensive line as a major source of problems for Ohio State in 2023. We spent a quite lengthy section of the podcast detailing technique issues, developmental problems, and NFL prospect limitations for the guards who had returned in 2023 (right guard Matthew Jones who went undrafted and #74 LG D. Jackson who likely returned to school because he wouldn’t have been despite coming in as a 5-star). The upshot is that it’s highly unlikely that the most problematic positions – the two tackle spots – have any real challengers in the unit or prospects for improvement in 2024, in my opinion.

Hinzman was evidently in some hot water during the bowl game and was sat in favor of Jones playing center and backup Enokk Vimahi, who’s since transferred to Washington, playing right guard (at a level of competence that bodes poorly for the Huskies). In the Spring game, I saw Alabama transfer #56 OL McLaughlin playing center with the ones, while Hinzman had moved to RG. This was hard for me to believe given that McLaughlin had achieved some notoriety last year at the position; I had figured Hinzman to resume at center when he was back in the staff’s good graces and the risk of McLaughlin’s snaps would be removed by having him replace Jones at RG. Instead, Eric told us that McLaughlin will stay at center and Hinzman is in a battle with the backup, redshirt freshman mid 4-star #51 OL Montgomery.

Reader, I wish to emphasize as I did on the podcast that this offensive line situation is not just intolerable by Ohio State’s high standards, it’s unacceptable, period. In grading the line’s per-play blocking performance alongside every other Big Ten team, on my tally sheet their cumulative rush error rate ranked 14^th, just behind Illinois, and pass error rate ranked 16^th, just behind Rutgers. Given the lack of alternate options, no change in coaching (indeed a doubling down by re-uniting Kelly and Frye), and the new potential risk an additional transfer presents, it seems likely this roadblock to offensive growth will remain.

Ohio State’s defense showed a split similar to the offense in their final F+ rankings during the post-Tressel era – eight seasons are top-15 finishes, and three are in the neighborhood of the 30s.

The worst was 2018, a 38^th ranked performance well below their talent rating that’s straightforward to explain – the Buckeyes had hired Alex Grinch as DC and safeties coach. I believe that the defensive line continued to perform at a high level – the efficiency vs explosive defense stats as well as short vs long yardage effectiveness on 3^rd down show that the problem was all on the back end. The secondary constantly let through big plays of all types and needed free pass rushers to be effective in coverage, in addition to committing an appalling 1.5 pass interference or defensive holding fouls per game.

After DC Greg Mattison had cleaned up the mess and brought them back up to the top ranking in 2019, he shared DC duties with Kerry Coombs in 2020 and then retired at the end of the season, leaving Coombs in charge for 2021. I think covid practice restrictions and some deficiencies in Coombs’ scheme held the Buckeyes back for those two years, but I also think that there were some holdover recruiting misses as well which Eric and I discussed on the podcast. The defensive line was fielding a very large rotation of guys many of whom, contrary to the long run in previous years, ultimately went undrafted, and several defensive backs were Grinch products who needed to be cycled out.

The last two years have seen a strong recovery in both the scheme and the frontline personnel. DC Knowles runs a fundamentally sound if fairly conservative 4-3 / 4-2-5 defense which maximizes its talent advantages and stresses players never being out of position, they’ve had excellent linebacker stability in the middle of the defense, and I think they’ve simply traded up in terms of actual, effective talent (distinct from on-paper talent ratings, which have remained the same) in the secondary. The only aspect that’s difficult to judge about the Buckeyes’ defense is their playable depth, because as we noted on the podcast at every position group, there’s a tendency to “iron man” the starters through the end of the game and it’s tough to make inferences about the readiness to play of the rest of the roster.

Eric and I spent some time on the podcast trying to resolve the mystery of 2022’s single-year upward spike in the Buckeye’s defensive success rate against efficiency runs. Since yards per carry and explosive rushing remained flat (and overall quite good) and the pass defense in all areas improved each year, this really just implicated the stuff rate – about half the time in 2021 and 2023 they stuffed the run, but the other half they allowed maybe five yards or so, and then for one year only in between their stuff rate shot up and they graded out at above 60% which is a championship-caliber number.

After talking it over with Eric I think that I was looking at it backwards – 60% is their natural level given the talent here, and it was depressed in 2021 and 2023. We’ve already covered the 2021 issues, but I think the 2023 cause was different – insufficient rotation at the defensive line positions and fatigue setting in. That’s something the Buckeyes have an opportunity to address and improve upon in 2024, though we’ll have to wait and see whether they actually do so.

The defensive tackles used a three-man primary rotation in 2023: Michael Hall, #58 DT Hamilton, and #91 DT T. Williams, who each graded out excellently on my tally sheet barring a couple late 4^th quarter pushes. Those three played in the previous two years as well, but after the Buckeyes had lost Jerron Cage and Taron Vincent at the end of 2022 I had expected some older tackles like Jaden McKenzie, #93 DT Kanu, and #95 DT Malone to step up to fill out the rotation. Instead McKenzie got just a bit of meaningful play, while Kanu and Malone only got a handful of garbage time reps, and the three 2023 bluechip recruits – mid 4-star #94 DT J. Moore and low 4-stars #98 DT McDonald and #53 DT W. Smith – redshirted.

Hall was drafted in the 2^nd round by the Browns and McKenzie transferred to ECU, while Hamilton and Williams return. In the Spring game, Kanu had joined Hamilton with the ones while Williams was being held out. Eric said that Kanu is a relatively recent convert to American football as a German soccer player and that there have been some language barrier issues, but that he should be in line for the primary rotation now.

Malone, a high 4-star from the 2021 cycle who transferred in from Ole Miss last year, was playing with the second unit next to McDonald. Eric thinks McDonald is more likely to join the primary rotation of the two … given how long it’s been without Malone seeing serious playing time at two schools I think the ship is close to having sailed on him. Later on in the Spring game and with the third unit were Moore and Smith plus mid 3-star prep recruit #90 DT Mensah and walk-on senior #62 DT Prater. Those four seem much less likely to get meaningful play.

If both Kanu and McDonald are ready to be high-level contributors as Eric expects and everyone stays healthy, the defensive tackles should resume being the typical four-man rotation that was so successful in 2022 and earlier run-stuffing Buckeye defenses. Even if not it shouldn’t affect much beyond that, since as long as the rest of the defense holds up surrendering efficiency runs alone does the least damage in modern college football. But it might make the difference in a close game, and given how little we’ve seen of the options to replace the departed tackles since 2022, the margin for error to hit the mark here is small.

It was a similar story for the defensive ends, but more so – 2021 5-stars #33 DE Sawyer and #44 DE Tuimolau continued to play at an incredible level in 2023, but got virtually no relief. After Zach Harrison was drafted and Javontae Jean-Baptiste transferred to Notre Dame at the end of the previous year, I expected that year’s backups, 2022 mid 4-stars #92 DE Curry and #97 DE K. Jackson, to step into the primary group so the Buckeyes could continue the typical four-man rotation at end. Instead those two stayed backups and saw almost all of their play come during garbage time. Their mid 4-star classmate Omari Abor still didn’t really see the field except a handful of late-game reps, and 2023 mid 4-star #52 DE Mickens didn’t play at all.

Abor transferred to SMU at the end of the year, but everyone else returns and there’s even more of an opportunity to build out the rotation here than at tackle. Curry and Jackson were playing with both the ones and the twos during the Spring game, and Eric intimated that Jackson in particular was promised a significant increase in playing time to fend off transfer invitations. 2020 low 4-star #17 DE Melton, who’s suffered multiple ACL tears but finally looks healthy and playable, got time with the twos in Spring after seeing a lot of garbage time last year. Eric said he knows nothing about Mickens, but expects the higher rated of the two 2024 prep recruits, 5-star #96 DE Houston, to at least get his feet wet as a true freshman.

It’s difficult to pin down because of how little meaningful tape there is on them, but the Buckeyes have at least two and possibly up to five options from which to find a couple of high-level playable additions to the primary rotation with Sawyer and Tuimolau. It seems like pretty good odds that they do so … the only question is whether the same reluctance to pull the starters from the field last year — even when they likely had playable guys available and fatigue was becoming apparent — will obtain.

Ohio State played a large rotation of linebackers in 2021, with a dozen guys getting playing time and the team much more often using its 4-3 and even 4-4 configurations than under Knowles’ more frequent nickel. Almost all of them found their playing time dwindling and most eventually transferred out — Reid Carrico, Dallas Gant, Teradja Mitchell, K’Vaughan Pope, and Craig Young – or graduated as walk-ons Ryan Batsch and Cade Kacherski plus USC transfer Palaie Gaoteote did. By 2022, the three backers who’d become the mainstays by the end of the previous year, MIKE Tommy Eichenberg, WILL Steele Chambers, and SAM #30 LB Simon, were getting virtually every snap. That arrangement continued in 2023 with the same top three guys dominating the snap count.

Eichenberg was drafted by the Raiders in the 5^th and Chambers signed a UDFA with the Lions. Simon returns for his fifth year, though from the Spring game it appears he’s been switched from the SAM position (which would rotate off the field when the nickelback came in) to the critical MIKE spot.

There are four other returning backers from 2023: 5-star #11 LB Hicks and mid 4-star #36 LB Powers from the 2022 cycle who each played a little garbage time as true freshmen and got what small amount of backup play was available last year, 2020 low 4-star #2 LB K. Williams who’s played very little because of frequent injuries and sat out the Spring game, and low 4-star 2023 recruit #20 LB Reese who redshirted.

The additions to the linebacking corps are from converting last year’s starting strong safety, #6 LB S. Styles, and a pair of prep recruits, mid 4-star #23 LB G. Stover (cousin of the tight end) and low 4-star #35 LB Pierce. Styles was playing WILL with both the ones and twos in the Spring game, but Eric told us that he’ll probably flip over to SAM in the Fall, which made sense to me as a converted DB with his length, given that position’s duties as an outside off-ball backer in a 4-3 structure. Stover came in late with the twos at WILL and I think he’ll get his feet wet as a freshman, but Pierce unfortunately took an injury late in high school and Eric said he’s expected to redshirt.

There’s certainly enough talent in the room to be optimistic about it happening, but a lot of guys are going to need to step up here to maintain the same level of play that the stable starters at backer brought for the last several seasons. Simon is very experienced but he’s switching to a position with different responsibilities and will probably need to be on the field much more often than he has been before, while Hicks will probably be playing WILL with an even more dramatic step up in playing time. Eric tabbed Powers and Reese as the likely backups since Williams hasn’t shown availability yet, but it’s even more unknown if they’re ready to play. I think Styles will work out just fine at SAM but outside-the-box coverage is where they needed the least help given the prevalence of their 4-2-5 looks.

The secondary returns 2023 starting outside corners #10 CB D. Burke and #1 CB Igbinosun as well as starting nickelback #7 DB Hanco*ck. Burke has been starting for the last three seasons since coming in as a low 4-star true freshman, but I thought he improved his mirroring and fluidity quite a bit in 2023. Igbinosun transferred in last year from Ole Miss where I’d watched his previous tape on another project and thought he was a steal; he replaced JK Johnson who’d transferred to LSU and Cameron Brown who’d signed a UDFA with the Chargers and I believe Ohio State upgraded at the position. Hanco*ck is still listed as a corner since that’s where he came in as, but he took over the position from safety Tanner McCalister and it’s better understood as a hybrid LB / STAR safety than as a slot corner.

The Buckeyes also return longtime safety #8 DB Ransom (he changed jerseys from #12 last year). He more or less forced the far inferior safety Bryson Shaw out in 2021 (Shaw followed Grinch to USC with predictable results) but Ransom unfortunately missed a lot of playing time with a Lisfranc injury in 2023.

Other than Styles converting to backer, the major secondary loss is free safety Josh Proctor, who’d been around since 2018 and signed a UDFA with the Jaguars. In addition, there have been six other defensive backs who transferred out, almost all of whom saw their playing time cut back instead of expand since 2022: Jyaire Brown, Ja’Had Carter, Cedrick Hawkins, Cameron Martinez, Kye Stokes, and Ryan Turner.

There are five other scholarship returners. One is a senior, #4 CB L. Styles (older brother of the converted backer and namesake of OSU legend Lorenzo Sr), who played wideout for two years at Notre Dame before transferring but didn’t really see the field in Columbus. The other four were 2023 mid 4-stars who got varying amounts of playing time as true freshmen - #24 DB Mathews was the third cornerback in on the very few meaningful backup reps, #24 DB Hartford and #22 CB Simpson-Hunt got some garbage time reps, and #21 DB Bonsu redshirted.

Ohio State has made several additions to the secondary, the headliner being 5-star Alabama transfer #2 DB Downs who led the Tide in tackles (by 40!) as a true freshman last year, as a certain starter. They’ve also taken the transfer of South Carolina low 4-star from the 2022 cycle Keenan Nelson, though he wasn’t on campus for Spring ball and he hasn’t really played in two years so I haven’t gotten to see him. The five prep recruits are high 4-star #5 CB A. Scott, mid 4-star #12 CB West, low 4-stars #13 CB Lockhart and #18 DB McClain, and Fall enrollee mid 3-star Leroy Roker.

The starters are all clear and there’s no reason not to expect a very high level of play since all five have had these jobs before, most for multiple seasons – Burke and Igbinosun on the outside, Hanco*ck at nickel, Downs and Ransom at the safety spots. I think they’ll probably continue to play them in almost all meaningful snaps for what appear to be cultural reasons, and so as long as they stay healthy this should be an elite group.

Eric and I spent most of our time discussing the depth options in case there is an injury, which due to how unproven the rest of the secondary is turned out to be fairly tricky. The most experienced is Mathews, though he was playing nickel instead of outside corner in the Spring game, and their best option for backup corner might be a freshman. I’m not really sure why they took Nelson given his paucity of playing time – Eric said it’s because the Buckeyes were recruiting him out of high school – but he has as little experience as everyone else, which other than Mathews amount to eight redshirt or true freshmen who haven’t really seen the field plus a converted wideout who hasn’t as a DB.

Eric said he’s liked Bonsu’s tape and thinks he’s better than his talent rating; I saw him with the ones during the Spring game as Ransom was out (Bonsu was at free and Downs was at strong safety, curiously). There’s plenty of talent and bodies in the room so the odds are good they would find someone playable if something unfortunate happens, but they’d lose the significant premium from how experienced each of the starters are.